Mixed news on the Climate Front

by Cherlana Bridgewater

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has given a disappointing update on the progress to tackling rising global temperatures. The report shows that there is now a 50/50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5⁰ C above the pre-industrial level in the next five years, and the likelihood of this scenario increases with time. Internationally acclaimed climate scientists and prediction systems show that there is a 93% chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 to become the warmest year on record, displacing the current year 2016.

Another prediction shows a 93% probability that the average temperature for the next five years (2022-2026) will be higher than the previous five-year average (WMO cites Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update). This means that the chance of exceeding the 1.5⁰ C threshold has been rising steadily since about 2015. In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1°C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the State of the Global Climate.

The findings of the annual update intake include:

• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1 °C and 1.7 °C higher than preindustrial levels (the average over the years 1850-1900).
• The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not (48%). There is only a small chance (10%) of the five-year mean exceeding this threshold.
• The chance of at least one year between 2022 and 2026 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the five-year mean for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.
• The Arctic temperature anomaly, compared to the 1991-2020 average, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.

However, it is not all bad news and there is a ray of hope, as the Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) has seen an exponential increase in companies committing to cut emissions and exceeding targets. Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) is a global body aiming to engage businesses to reduce emissions by setting ambitious targets with the latest climate science. They work with acclaimed climate scientists and environmental standard organisations like Climate Disclosure Project (CDP), the United Nations Global Compact, World Resources Institute and the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF).

Over 2,253 companies covering a third of the global economy market capitalization are working with SBTi, 1,171 commitments have been made, and 1,082 targets have been approved. Companies are cutting emissions two-times faster than what is required, reducing emissions by 29% between 2015 and 2020, in comparison to 25% reduction between 2015 and 2019. Taking the 1.5°C threshold into account, SBTi standards require companies to make rapid and deep emission cuts, through both near- and long-term science-based targets.  With majority of the companies located in Europe, North America, Japan, Asia, Africa and Latin America, almost 63% of the companies have 1.5°C- classified targets, with 96% of the SBTi companies covering scope 3 emissions. An annual 4.2% emissions reduction is required for 1.5ºC-aligned science-based targets. A typical SBTi-approved company has been even more ambitious than the 1.5ºC trajectory, with a linear rate of 8.8% reductions a year during the period with approved targets It seems that there are some positive strides to reducing emissions and it is promising to see a rapid increase in companies committing to cut emissions. However, as evidenced by the WMO we need to ensure more rapid action to address the continued increase in global annual temperature.